Monday, March 24, 2025

system-thinking iceberg (Peter Senge)

 The necessary revolution : how individual and organizations are working together to create a sustainable world,  
Peter Senge, 
Bryan Smith, Nina Kruschwitz, Joe Laur, Sara Schley, 
2008

p.172   The System-thinking Iceberg 
p.173
four factors that influence any situations:
   events, 
   patterns or trends, 
   deeper systemic structures or forces, 
   and the mental models or assumptions that shape these structures and force. 
pp.174-177
p.173   events
The first level of the iceberg can be summed up in the question "What just happened?"
  p.173   
Immediate events are tangible, they catch our attention—much like a loud noise that suddenly causes us to drop everything and look up. 
  p.173
The problem is that events can so dominate our attention that we get stuck here and, as a result, miss the bigger picture entirely. 
  p.174
(???) When people are stuck at this level, they see only the tip of the iceberg and can do little except react as new circumstances arise.  ([ this is also called, firefighting mode — essentially all you can do is to put out the fire, move from one problem to the next, from crisis to crisis. ]) 

p.174   patterns/trends
"What is happening over time?"  Answering this question takes us a little deeper into the system, a little below the typical water surface. 
  p.174
But most players react to falling profits by fishing harder to maintain their revenues.  If they do so, however, the fishery will collapse. (???) 

p.175   systemic structures or forces 
Ask, "What are the deeper forces driving these patterns or trends and how do they arise?" 
  p.175
In other words, when the fish companies are experiencing their greatest revenue, the fishery is most stressed.  On the surface, profits are high, but below the surface (literally and metaphorically in the systems thinking iceberg) the fish population is collapsing. 
  p.175
So in order to avert disaster, companies must cut back their fishing at the very moment when the pressures to keep growing are greatest!  (???) 

p.176   mental models. 
We all hold mental models —— some shared across a society, others across a social class, a political party, an industry, a particular company, or even within our own family.  What is often less clear is how these models affect, even dictate, our thoughts and actions and the thinking of those around us. 

In other words, when the fish companies are experiencing their greatest revenue, the fishery is most stressed.  On the surface, profits are high, but below the surface (literally and metaphorically in the systems thinking iceberg) the fish population is collapsing. 


p.174
Ways of explaining reality 

    **increasing leverage and opportunity for learning 
    ||  
    ||   Events                React
    ||   what just happened?      
    ||   
    ||   Patterns/Trends       Anticipate/expectation  
    ||   what's been happening over time? 
    ||   have we been here or some
    ||   place similar before? 
    ||
    ||   Systemic Structures   Design/co-design/co-evolution   
    ||   what are the deeper forces driving these 
    ||   patterns  or  trends and how do they arise? 
    ||   what are the forces at play 
    ||   contributing to these pathways? 
    ||   
    ||   Mental Models         Transform/re-form/re-organise/re-call   
    ||   what about our thinking 
    ||   allows this situation to persist? 
    \/
    figure 12.1 

p.177
   Why is it so important to look beneath the surface at the deeper levels of reality?  Because in our experience it is often the key to lasting change.  When people or organizations pay attention only to the visible tip of the iceberg, they can only react to change as it happens — so at best, they survive the crisis.  They often try to compensate for their lack of analysis of a problem with aggressive and "proactive" strategies.  But being "proactive" from a reactive mind-set is reactive just the same.  With long enough lever, boasted Archimedes, "I can move the world."
 
   (The necessary revolution : how individual and organizations are working together to create a sustainable world, Peter Senge, Bryan Smith, Nina Kruschwitz, Joe Laur, Sara Schley, 2008, 338.927 Senge, pp.172-177)
   ____________________________________

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