Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.
p.174, p.176
p.174
I was showing my observation of cyclical human behavior to Michael Royston
Michael Royston, teaching environmental sciences in the International Management Institute of Geneva
unpublished paper, written in 1982, he talked about the same fifty-six-year cycle but from another angle.5
pp.174-175
Royston's thesis: life progresses in spirals and that long-term growth follows a spiral which passes successively through four phases:
discharge,
relaxation,
charge, and
tension,
after which it returns to the starting point, but enriched with new knowledge, experience, and strength.
p.175
Figure 9.3 The Royston spiral.
Life Seen as a spiral
discharge: boom,
relaxation: recession,
charge: new order, new technology
tension: growth
p.176
floating compass (1324),
invention of gun powder and gun making (1380),
the invention of the printing press (1436),
the discovery of America (1492),
the beginning of the Reformation (Luther and Calvin, 1548),
the defeat of the Spanish and the rise of the Dutch (1604),
the arrival on France's throne of Louis XIV (1660),
the rise of the English Empire (1715), and
the American War of Independence (1772).
p.176
The fifty-six-year periods that followed these events saw successive transfer of powers,
from the French to the British with the end of the Napoleonic era (1828-1884),
from the British to the Germans with the new technologies of chemicals, automobiles, airplanes, and electronic power (1884-1940), and
from the Germans to the Americans with such new technologies as plastics, transistors, antibiotics, organic pesticides, jet engines, and nuclear power (1940-1996).
(Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis., 1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.)., 3. science and civilization., CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
____________________________________
Newton’s familiar assertion,
‘If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giant’ (Merton, 1998).
source:
Evolving Reactions: 60 Years with March and Simon’s
‘Organizations’
written by Karl E. Weick, University of Michigan
Journal of Management Studies
doi: 10.1111/joms.12289
56:8 December 2019
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____________________________________
Joshua Cooper Ramo (author), The seventh sense (book), 2016
pp.10-11
At the turn of the last century, the German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche suggested that humans needed a “Sixth Sense” to survive what then seemed like insane madness: the Industrial Revolution. He didn't mean by this that we should all go study history. At least that wasn't all he meant. He thought a Sixth Sense should be a feel for the rhythms of history. There was a certain pace and tone to human life, he said, sort of like a runner on a long race, and you or I would need a sense of the whole course in order to pace ourselves. Without it, we might end up slowing down at the wrong moments. Or ── and this particularly worried him ── we might run too fast and exhaust ourselves just as a big hill was coming up. Nietzsche thought the world was about to have to face a very steep, unforgiving incline on the way to a new kind of social order, and that most people in the 1890s were skipping along as if it was all downhill from there on out. A feeling for history, he hoped, might help. But he also felt pretty sure no one would develop this new sense. He expected tragedy. “The more abstract the truth you wish to teach”, he said, “the more you must allure the senses to it.” But no one was attracted to the idea of danger in those gilded days.
p.11
“Man's habit change more rapidly than his instincts”, the historian Charles Coulston Gillispie once wrote.
Joshua Cooper Ramo (author), The seventh sense (book), 2016
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