modeling processing delay (x3)

 
..., and then multiply by three (x3, *3)
   ◇p.103
Jay Forrester used to tell us, when we were modeling a construction or processing delay, to ask everyone in the system how long they thought the delay was, make our best guess, and then multiply by three. (That correction factor also works perfectly, I have found, for estimating how long it will take to write a book!)
     (Thinking in systems : a primer, Donella H. Meadows, Edited by Diana Wright, sustainability institute, 2008, QA 402 .M425 2008, ◇p.103 )

([ for construction or processing delay ])

source:
published public information on cost projection of program

But even the costs of that comparatively modest goal ballooned to the point where the program is estimated to run about $17.6 billion, nearly three times the original projections.

  ---------------------------
   Comparatively modest 
    goal ballooned
  ---------------------------
   The program is estimated 
    to run about $17.6 
    billion, nearly three 
    times the original 
    projections.  
  ===========================

 ([ program cost estimation ])

satellite
Sbirs GEO-1 Launches At Last
Space-Based Infrared System (SBIrS)

geosynchronous

Col. Roger Teague, commander of the Infrared Space Systems Directorate at Air Force Space and Missile Defense in Los Angeles.

“The SBIRS system will remain the golden standard for missile warning. It will be the backbone of the important mission we do to provide that early warning for hostile missiles and threats for our nation and allies,” Teague said. 
With it, "we can see much more, much earlier, much sooner,” he said.

the first of four SBIRS geostationary satellites -- which orbit the planet in a fixed spot relative to Earth -- will add to the two highly elliptical satellites already in place.

SBIRS GEO-1 will provide persistent surveillance of just one hotspot, warzone or hostile nation -- which one exactly is classified

After its launch, the satellite will take nine days to achieve its orbit. It could take another six months before it starts providing intelligence data, however. The satellite will then undergo a certification process that will take roughly 17 months, whereupon it should receive approval to participate in integrated warning assessments and operations, providing 24/7 persistent surveillance with its unblinking, sleepless infrared sensors.

The fourth and final SBIRS satellite is scheduled for launch in 2016, Teague said.

Teague acknowledged that the launch of SBIRS GEO-1 is the beginning of the end of a long road fraught with technical and cost challenges for the U.S. Air Force and its contractors, which include Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Aerospace Corp.

Defense officials conceived of SBIRS in 1995 as a means to update the Defense Support Program satellites, first launched in 1970. While the Strategic Defense Initiative envisioned refashioning such satellites with space-based defense weapons to blast incoming missiles from the sky, SBIRS took a more conservative approach of fitting more advanced sensors to the new satellites.

But even the costs of that comparatively modest goal ballooned to the point where the program is estimated to run about $17.6 billion, nearly three times the original projections.

Despite the massive cost overruns, the basic specifications for the two infrared sensor packages onboard GEO-1 remained stable, said Jeff Smith, SBIRS program manager at Lockheed Martin, which built the satellite.

A scanning sensor will conduct sweeps for information on missile launches, while a staring sensor will analyze a fixed location, Smith explained. 
The scanning sensor likely would pick up threat information first due to its wider range but the staring sensor could provide more detailed information on a threat

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/05/05/air-force-launch-star-wars-style-missile-defense/

reuters 2011/05/07 usa-military-satellite
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/launches+billion+missile+defence+satellite/4746975/story.html

http://www.itwire.com/science-news/space/46993-us-missile-defense-geo-1-launched-into-space

By William Atkins
Monday, 09 May 2011 00:22
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