Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.
p.174, p.176
p.174
I was showing my observation of cyclical human behavior to Michael Royston
Michael Royston, teaching environmental sciences in the International Management Institute of Geneva
unpublished paper, written in 1982, he talked about the same fifty-six-year cycle but from another angle.5
pp.174-175
Royston's thesis: life progresses in spirals and that long-term growth follows a spiral which passes successively through four phases:
discharge,
relaxation,
charge, and
tension,
after which it returns to the starting point, but enriched with new knowledge, experience, and strength.
p.175
Figure 9.3 The Royston spiral.
Life Seen as a spiral
discharge: boom,
relaxation: recession,
charge: new order, new technology
tension: growth
p.176
floating compass (1324),
invention of gun powder and gun making (1380),
the invention of the printing press (1436),
the discovery of America (1492),
the beginning of the Reformation (Luther and Calvin, 1548),
the defeat of the Spanish and the rise of the Dutch (1604),
the arrival on France's throne of Louis XIV (1660),
the rise of the English Empire (1715), and
the American War of Independence (1772).
p.176
The fifty-six-year periods that followed these events saw successive transfer of powers,
from the French to the British with the end of the Napoleonic era (1828-1884),
from the British to the Germans with the new technologies of chemicals, automobiles, airplanes, and electronic power (1884-1940), and
from the Germans to the Americans with such new technologies as plastics, transistors, antibiotics, organic pesticides, jet engines, and nuclear power (1940-1996).
(Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis., 1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.)., 3. science and civilization., CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
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