Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope, 1966 [ ]
written by Carroll Quigley
p.20 (pdf page: 35/1363)
The demographic cycle may be divided into four stages which we have designated by the first four letters of the alphabet. These four stages can be distinguished in respect to four traits: the birthrate, the death rate, the number of population, and its age distribution. The nature of the four stages in these four respects can be seen in the following table:
THE DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
STAGE [ A ] [ B ] [ C ] [ D ]
birth rate high high falling low
death rate high falling low rising
pop numbers stable rising stable falling
age distributions many young many in prime many in middle- many old
(below 18) (18-45) aged (over 30) (over 50)
p.21 (pdf page: 36/1363)
The consequences of this demographic cycle (and the resulting demographic explosion) as it diffuses outward from western Europe to more peripheral areas of the world may be gathered from the following table which sets out the chronology of this movement in the four areas of western Europe, central Europe, eastern Europe, and Asia:
<see Diffusion of the demographic cycle table>
concomitants [accompanying; attendant, accompanying circumstance, or thing]
p.26 (pdf page: 41/1363)
Capitalism was an economic system in which the motivating force was the desire for private profit as determined in a price system. Such a system, it was felt, by seeking the aggrandization of profits for each individual, would give unprecedented economic progress under liberalism and in accord with the community of interests. In the 19th century this system, in association with the unprecedented advance of natural science, had given rise to industrialism (that is, power production) and urbanism (that is, city life), both of which were regarded as inevitable concomitants of progress by most people, but with the greatest suspicion by a persistent and vocal minority.
concomitants [accompanying; attendant, accompanying circumstance, or thing]
(Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope, 1966, )
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Thou know'st 'tis common,
all that lives must die,
Passing through nature to eternity.
Station eleven, limited drama series, [2022]
episode : a hawk from a handsaw
Paramount television studio
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The day the Earth stood still
, nothing ever truly dies.
The universe wastes nothing.
Everything is simply ... transformed.
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Joshua M. Brown, Backstage wall street, 2012
[pp.107-108]
As can be expected, the majority of the mutual fund households are headed by members of the baby-boomer generation. They've been treated well by their involvement with funds over the years, at least until the year 2000 when the bull market in stocks that began in 1982 came to an abrupt and shocking end. Even still, boomers make up 44 percent of fund-owning households, followed by the Gen Xers, who make up only 24 percent of the total. (44 + 24 = 68, 32?) A big piece of the current mutual fund ownership pie consists of investors who first got involved with funds prior to 1990 (38 percent). Another large chunk of holders (21 percent) first brought mutual funds during the "Irrational Exuberance" Era between 1995 and 1999. Finally, 26 percent of fund investors have come in after the year 2000, and many of these have little or nothing to show for their purchases since stocks have essentially round-tripped during the last decade. (2012-2002)(38 + 21 + 26 = 85, 15?)
And now, much to the chagrin of the fund complex (and thousands of Boston Red Sox fans, thankfully), this dynasty over the investment business is coming to an end.
The fact that the boomers will be liquidating their equity funds over the next decades as they settle into retirement is lost on no one in the industry. About 58 percent of mutual fund--owning heads of household are between 40 and 64, and the median is tilting further toward 64 with every passing day. Boomers were the perfectly buy-and-hold, bread-and-butter investors that mutual funds lived off for the last three decades(30 years). Fund families learned how to market to them and what make them tick. And now they are going away.
The first baby boomers were born in 1946 when the war ended and Americas sailors and soldiers came home filled with, well, let's just say SPIRIT. If you add 65 years to 1946, you arrive at 2011--which means the first boomers have just started to hit retirement age now. Beginning in January 2011, there were 10,000 boomers per day who started turning age 65. This will continue until the year 2030 or when the robots enslave us, whichever comes first (I'm betting robots).
According to statistics supplied before the U.S. House of Representatives by Vanguard's John Bogle, more then 30 percent of investors in their sixties(60s) have greater than 80 percent of their 401(k) invested in equities, most of which is through mutual funds. The fund families will not be able to count on these assets for much longer, as required minimum distribution trigger redemption that our ongoing bear market couldn't. <skip one sentence> The mass exodus will leave no corner of the fund industry untouched.
[p.141]
Big pools of professionally run assets (like endowments, retirement funds, and money money management firms) have learned the hard way that in a bear market the brokerage firm analysts won't get them out and in a bull market their rating are worthless as everything moves higher ([generally]).
[p.164]
And it is not just product that needs to be sold. Strategies have received their own stories as well. “Buy and hold” is one of the greatest stories ever told, this despite the fact that in the past century we've seen 25 cyclical bear markets and two bone-crushing secular bear markets. Had you brought and held equities in the late 1920s, you would not have been back to breakeven until the early 1950s. A basket of stocks brought in 1966 would have been worth the same nominal dollar amount 16 years later in 1982. But buy and hold means captive pools of asset to assess steady fees from, and so buy and hold is ingrained in the Wall Street sales pitch to America. [...] Unfortunately for the buy-and-hold faithful, we now find ourselves experiencing the so-called hundred-year storm about every seven years these days.
('backstage wall street : an insider's guide to knowing who to trust, who to run from, and how to maximize your investments', Joshua M. Brown (2012), copyright © 2012, [332.6097 Brown], )
(Brown, Joshua M.; 'backstage wall street', copyright © 2012, publisher McGraw-Hill Companies, [332.6097 Brown], p.108, pp.107-108)
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([
Four Keys for Decoding
Four Perspectives (momentum, trend, cycle)
1. Fundamentals regress to the historical mean (financial markets) (Jeremy Grantham)
1.5 the tendency for all bubbles to revert to the mean ~Jeremy Grantham
1.7 the tendency to revert to the mean
2. What is unsustainable tends to stop (fiscal projections)
3. Demography is destiny (global aging) (Warren Buffet)
Demographic is destiny (Auguste Comte).
4. Generations and history have rhythems (the fourth turning???)
Neil Howe on Four Keys for Decoding America's Future
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfcFhgVyNik
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfcFhgVyNik
[p.371]
There is a math concept called "reversion to the mean"; this states simply that an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event. This is not a law, only a probability . . . .
So just as it seemed that the virus would bring civilization to its knees, would do what the plague of the Middle Ages had done, the virus mutated toward its mean, toward the behavior of most influenza viruses. As time went on, it became less lethal.
(The Great Influenza, the story of the deadliest pandemic in history, John M. Barry, © 2004, p.371)
])
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([
highly predictable nature of consumer spending based on a family's formation pattern
United States and like regions formation of family pattern:
● minimal spending as young adults,
● increased spending while rearing children,
● peaking their spending as their children leave home, and then
● slowing spending during the last 15 years of working life (48-63) while saving more and preparing for retirement.
Name: Harry Dent, Author of 'The Great Crash Ahead'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent
Dent says the combination of aging Baby Boomers exiting their big spending years and a shift toward debt reduction and austerity around the world will cause the economy to suffer another severe leg down, making it more difficult for the government and Federal Reserve to avert a new meltdown. He has not always been bearish. In 1993 he wrote The Great Boom Ahead. ([ there is another layer to this in how the spending pattern was given a little push after the 2nd war, for the able-mind-and-body men and women that came back home and did not come back home to the United States, I shall not explore it here. ])
The basis of Dent's research is the highly predictable nature of consumer spending based on a family's formation pattern: minimal spending as young adults, increased spending while rearing children, peaking their spending as their children leave home, and then slowing spending during the last 15 years of working life (48-63) while saving more and preparing for retirement.
In Japan, Dent was using their peak of 45-50 year olds (1990–1994) as the beginning of a long slowdown. In the US, he used, and continues to use, the peak year for 48-year-olds, 2009, as the top of a long term growth pattern.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spending_wave
Dent popularized the baby boomer spending wave theory.[1] According to him, after baby-boomers' children leave home, they begin paying down debt and saving for retirement, which means spending less. That means the stock-market would have plateaued between 2007 and 2009, and remain basically flat through the fourth quarter of 2011.
])
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Robert M. Gates, From the shadows : the ultimate insider's story of five presidents and how they won the cold war, [1996]
p.225
Resources cut. An Agency in the midst of a profound demographic change as the founding generation retired and huge numbers of new, young, inexperienced people joined. We knew the months and years ahead would not be easy. I had no idea how hard they would be.
pp.42-43
Above all, Schlesinger wanted to rid CIA of people he called
“dead wood,” especially the “old boys” of the clandestine service that he felt were blocking the way upward for younger, fresher people. He also thought that the Agency as a whole was overstaffed. And so began what the entire Agency came to call “the massacre.” In all, Schlesinger in his short stay purged about 7 percent of CIA. People in all directorates were fired, forced to resign or to retire. Nor was it done gently. The largest hit, by far, was taken by the Directorate of Operations--the spies, the collectors of intelligence from human sources, the planners and implementer of covert action. I was later told on a trip abroad, Schlesinger told one of our chiefs of station, “I'm going to break up Helm's Praetorian guard.” That word got around pretty fast, even if apocryphal. Nearly all of us feared for our jobs in the apprehensive atmosphere all this created, but for many of us, there was also some sympathy for Schlesinger's attempt to break the DO's grip on the Agency and to restore energy, zest, and relevance to the CIA. With few exception, though, even those who generally supported Schlesinger's goals liked neither him nor his methods.
p.140
I agreed with much of what he wanted to do in terms of breaking down the walls among different parts of the organization, giving younger people more opportunities (I especially liked that one), rationalizing collection management, and more. Believing that senior people want to hear the unvarnished views of their close associates, I was often brutally candid with Turner about his management style--as well as the problems I saw in the Agency. I was, from time to time, quite insubordinate. But Stan Turner never closed me out, never shut me up. He was, in fact, quite tolerant of some pretty harsh criticism.
p.140
Coming at the end of Turner's time in office, I quickly came to appreciate what he was trying to do, understood the bureaucratic resistance to that, and gained considerable respect for him. Watching the way the Agency bureaucracy obstructed his efforts, I once told him I had learned a valuable lesson working for him.
( Gates, Robert Michael, From the shadows : the ultimate insider's story of five presidents and how they won the cold war / Robert M. Gates, 1. united states--foreign relations--soviet union, 2. soviet union--foreign relations--united states, 3. gates, robert michael, 4. intelligence service--united states--history--20th century, 327.7304 Gates, E183.8.S65G39 1996, copyright © 1996, )
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Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994
p.366
tomorrow will be mostly like today
p.367
Theodore Modis, 1992 book, Predictions
Invariants, Growth Curves, Cyclic Waves
p.367
cooking, traveling, cleaning
If new activities (say airplane flight instead of walking) are reformulated into elemental dimensions for analysis (how much time is spent in daily moving), the new behaviors often exhibit a continuous pattern with the odd that can be extrapolated (and predicted) into the future. Instead of walking a half hour to work, you now drive a half hour to work. In the future, you may fly a half hour to work.
p.367
Tracing an invariant optimization point can often alert us to a clean pocket of predictability.
p.367
Among them are a lifespan that can be plotted as an S-shaped curve: slow birth, steep growth, slow decline.
(Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994, filename: ooc-mf.pdf )
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‘’•─“”
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πόλλ' οἶδ' ἀλώπηξ,ἀλλ' ἐχῖνος ἓν μέγα πόλλ' οἶδ' ἀλώπηξ,ἀλλ' ἐχῖνος ἓν μέγα
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(Ackoff's best : his classic writings on management, Russell L. Ackoff., © 1999, hardcover, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., p.139)
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